Unscrambling the Expire

The expire upload provided by your fulfillment house shows each sub the the expire group for its last trailer.  For example, if the expire upload is pulled for the 2/02 issue and a sub is currently being served as a Direct Mail sub until 4/02 but it has already renewed for a year it will show up in the expire upload as a renewal sub in 4/03.

The MPMW 'unscrambles' the expire upload by using the renewal %s and renewal flows you specify to calculate how many subs from each expire group have already renewed.  For example, suppose you tell the MPMW that:

    40% of the 4/02 Direct Mail expire group will renew
    As of 2 months before expire 75% of all the renewals will have been renewed
    They will all have renewed for 1 year

It then uses that information to calculate that 30% (75% of 40%) of the original expire group have renewed by the time the expire upload was pulled.  So if the expire upload says that there are 700 subs in the 4/02 expire group there must have been 1,000 subs originally since 30% have already renewed.

To report the correct sub count by source 300 subs are moved out of the 4/03 renewal expire group back into the 4/02 expire group and reported there until the renewals start in 5/02.

The MPMW also uses the original size of each expire group to accurately calculate the renewals that will be received after the expire is pulled.

If you have given the MPMW the incorrect renewal % the original size of the expire group will be calculated incorrectly, the error will show up in the source count for the expire upload issue and you will know immediately that something is wrong.  Models that use the deferred liability numbers from the expire upload will report the correct sub count for the expire issue even if the renewal % you specify is double or half the correct number.  You won't know that anything is wrong until you compare model versus actual several months after the expire upload issue.