Modeling advance renewals and gift mailings is messy.  Our first effort at modeling advance renewals worked reasonably well but didn't work at all well for gifts.  Version 4.4 introduces a new approach to modeling 2 for 1 renewal/gifts that makes use of renewal sources for better reporting and handling donor and donee renewals, and "projected" and "actual" sources to enable actualizing of advance renewal and 2 for 1 renewal/gift mailings.

How MPMW Advance Renewal/Gift Sources Work

MPMW Advance Renewal/Gift sources model an advance renewal mailing or 2 for 1 gift (i.e. renew yourself and give a gift) mailing to current subscribers.  You specify the range of expire groups from what new business or renewal sources receive the mailing and what percentage will respond.  If the mailing is a 2 for 1 gift mailing you tell the model the average number of gifts per response and when the gift subs will start.

Using this information the model calculates the number of subscribers who will receive the mailing and the number of responses and gift subs.  Renewal responses are automatically started when the current sub expires.  Gift subs start in the model period specified unless the production date plus the specified delay is later than the normal start.  For example, if:

      the mailing is dropped in 8/01
      the # Mos Delay is set to 1 and
      the Gift St Mo Aft Mlg is set to 4

production in months 8/01 to 11/01 will start in 12/01 (8/01 plus 4 months) while production from 12/01 on will start one month later.

All donor production is reported in Renewal report writer factors (F229xx) and the specified donor renewal source number factors (F4nnnxx).  Even though gifts are normally new business, gift production is also reported in Renewal report writer factors (F229xx) and the specified gift renewal source number factors (F4nnnxx).  This is done so that the model can find the gift expires for future gift mailings.

If a response includes one or more gifts the sub price is allocated evenly across the renewal and the gift subs.  For example, if the mailing sub price is $20 and there is 1 gift for each response the renewal sub is allocated $10 and the gift sub is allocated $10.  This leads to different formulas if the average gifts per response is greater than 1 or not.

If on average there is less than 1 gift per response it is assumed that some of the responses are a renewal only at the full price of the mailing, and the rest are a renewal plus 1 gift at half the price each.  This implies that all gifts are assumed to be at half price and renewals are allocated the rest.

If on average there is 1 or more gifts per response it is assumed that all of the responses give at least one gift.  This implies that all the subs are priced at the mailing price divided by the total number of subs sold.

Modeling Advance Renewal Mailings

Use a "projected" advance renewal/gift source to model an advance renewal mailing.  Leave the Gifts/Resp column at 0.  You can use an "actual" other-type source with the same source number to actualize the responses as they come in.

Current Inventory

If there are expires for the source in the expire upload you used to start the model put them in the Curr-Cnv. line of the Current Inventory block of the "actual" source with the fulfillment source code but no renewal source number.  If you aren't using an "actual" source put the expires in the same way in the advance renewal/gift source.

Updating Actuals

If you are using Production Upload to update actual production into an "actual" source put an effort line into the "actual" source with the first month/week you expect production from the mailing, the bad debt, cancel percentages and the price/terms for the mailing but with 0 in the Subs/Mo column.  Production Upload will use that line when it updates actual production.

Production Upload will not update the actual production if you put the expires on the Curr-Reg line of the Current Inventory block nor if you leave out the fulfillment source code.

Reporting

In your report definitions you must refer to both the source number you used for the source and the renewal source number you used in the Donor Renl Src # column.  The current inventory and the updated actual production will appear in the report writer factors for the source itself (F3nnnxx), and the projected production in the report writer factors for the renewal source (F4nnnxx).  So, for example, if the source number is 21 and the renewal source number is 4 the formula for paid copies served would be:

       F32121 + F40421

The Source Report Wizard is not smart enough to do this for you - it will generate only the factors for the source itself.  You will have to add the factors for the renewal source number to the line for the source (and perhaps subtract them from the renewals section of the report).

Modeling 2 for 1 Renewal/Gifts

Use a "projected" advance renewal/gift source to model a 2 for 1renewal/gift mailing.  Use one "actual" other-type source with the same source number to actualize the renewal responses as they come in, and another with a different source number to actualize gifts.

Current Inventory

If there are donor expires for the source in the expire upload you used to start the model put them in the Curr-Cnv. line of the Current Inventory block of the "actual" donor source with the donor fulfillment source code but no renewal source number.

If there are donee expires in the expire upload you used to start the model put them in the Curr-Cnv. line of the Current Inventory block of the "actual" donee source with the donee fulfillment source code but no renewal source number.

Updating Actuals

If you are using Production Upload to update actual production into "actual" sources put an effort line into the "actual" donor source with the first month/week you expect production from the mailing, the bad debt and cancel percentages and the price/terms for the mailing but with 0 in the Subs/Mo column.  Also put the average prices for each term that apply to the renewal response.  Do the same thing in the "actual" donee source but with the prices attributable to the gift subs.  Production Upload will use these line when it updates actual production.

Production Upload will not update the actual production if you put the expires on the Curr-Reg line of the Current Inventory block nor if you leave out the fulfillment source code.

Reporting

In your report definitions for the donor source you must refer to both the source number you used for the advance renewal/gift source and the renewal source number you used in the Donor Renl Src # column.  In your report definitions for the donee source you must refer to both the source number you used for the "actual" donee source and the renewal source number you used in the Gift Renl Src # column.  

The current inventory and the updated actual production will appear in the report writer factors for the sources themselves (F3nnnxx), and the projected production in the report writer factors for the renewal sources (F4nnnxx).  So, for example, if the source number is 21 and the renewal source number is 4 the formula for paid copies served would be:

       F32121 + F40421

The Source Report Wizard is not smart enough to do this for you - it will generate only the factors for the "actual" sources themselves.  You will have to add the factors for the renewal source numbers to the line for the sources (and perhaps subtract them from the renewals section of the report).

Modeling Donor and Donee Renewals

To model donor renewals use a "projected" advance renewal/gift source to model only the donor renewals and a separate "projected" advance renewal/gift source to model only the donee renewals.  Both should have 0 in the Avg Gifts/Ordr column.

The donor renewal mailings should reference the source number of the "actual" donor source for the original 2 for 1 renewal/gift mailing and the "actual" source for the donor renewal mailing in the New Src numbers, and the donor renewal source number from the original 2 for 1 renewal/gift mailing and the donor renewal source number from the donor renewal mailing in the Ren Src numbers.  The mailing should have the average price attributable to the donor renewals.

The donee renewal mailings should reference the source number of the "actual" donee source for the original 2 for 1 renewal/gift mailing and the "actual" source for the donee renewal mailing in the New Src numbers, and the gift renewal source number from the original 2 for 1 renewal/gift mailing and the donee renewal source number from the donee renewal mailing in the Ren Src numbers.  The mailing should have the average price attributable to gift renewals.

Reporting Donor and Donee Renewals

As with the original 2 for 1 renewal mailing you must reference both the "actual" source number and renewal source number for donor renewals and for donee renewals.